Will "alon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 2032 launches in the last hour referenced "alon" (26 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.22×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -1.522478405493911,
      "diversity": -0.20666666666666672
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21760249142621202
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "alon",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0048828125,
    "share60": 0.02238071815051648,
    "total15": 511,
    "total60": 2032,
    "momentum": 0.21817050137362637,
    "diversity": 0.5777777777777777,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 293,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918833333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986472222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21760249142621202
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 03:30 UTC.

Integrity