Ledger / Prediction #4154 · narrative · 1H

Will "alon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 2032 launches in the last hour referenced "alon" (26 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.22×.

Made2026-10-14 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -1.522478405493911,
      "diversity": -0.20666666666666672
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15452255933248085
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "alon",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0048828125,
    "share60": 0.02238071815051648,
    "total15": 511,
    "total60": 2032,
    "momentum": 0.21817050137362637,
    "diversity": 0.5777777777777777,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 293,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918833333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918833333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15452255933248085
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.024

Log loss0.168

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004014272970561998,
  "shareRatio": 0.19138418425088063,
  "totalAfter": 2242,
  "shareBefore": 0.021897810218978103,
  "totalBefore": 2055,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that "alon" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.19% → 0.40% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "alon" (1H). momentum contributed -1.52 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaf52acabc31adec8b8ffc999d5ad1fe0f5e21d4ec69284a1a6eb0c071bcd33b1

Previous hash085871c3afa7bcc0a555d46b05c900ef5a3c5027d9a9fd0888ecb207f96e96e7