GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4153 · narrative · 1H

Will "muse" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2032 launches in the last hour referenced "muse" (36 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.51×.

Made2026-10-14 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -0.6712279707908838,
      "diversity": -0.03600000000000003
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3403263558380455
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "muse",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0126953125,
    "share60": 0.02484013772749631,
    "total15": 511,
    "total60": 2032,
    "momentum": 0.5110806002475248,
    "diversity": 0.72,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 36
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 293,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918833333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918833333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3403263558380455
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 22:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.116
Log loss0.416
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008920606601248885,
  "shareRatio": 0.045377698715034234,
  "totalAfter": 2242,
  "shareBefore": 0.024330900243309004,
  "totalBefore": 2055,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "muse" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.43% → 0.09% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "muse" (1H). momentum contributed -0.67 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash085871c3afa7bcc0a555d46b05c900ef5a3c5027d9a9fd0888ecb207f96e96e7
Previous hashacbaa792d3e563cbf76bfec249496df44a159600ed5f94ae9851fd39c9d8f899