GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4148 · narrative · 24H

Will "call" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "call" (7 distinct creators, rank #108). Last 15m momentum 1.78×.

Made2026-10-14 21:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 21:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.5780559817617998,
      "diversity": 0.03333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5124420952556415
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "call",
    "rank60": 108,
    "share15": 0.007666098807495741,
    "share60": 0.004300588501584427,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 1.7825697121850625,
    "diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 294,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998336574074074
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5124420952556415
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 21:00 UTC.

Integrity

Hashffca5f3330fd1ef174d13546a40a7d8defe872fecdf139fe0d1612901d717fef
Previous hashac49cac58d2adde6e98a0ab0548c52e9d4dbd339f00c58fc64e1947fb5e67e90