Will "guy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "guy" (34 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": -2.2489461622017757,
      "diversity": -0.13018867924528305
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15219285089251802
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "guy",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.002555366269165247,
    "share60": 0.024219103666817565,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 0.10551035679600056,
    "diversity": 0.6415094339622641,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 294,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993346296296296
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15219285089251802
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 03:00 UTC.

Integrity