Ledger / Prediction #4138 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

110 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (57 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.87×.

Made2026-10-14 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4636563680037474,
      "momentum": -0.14106668520140644,
      "diversity": -0.27818181818181814
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43644756599884005
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.0434412265758092,
    "share60": 0.05002263467632413,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 0.8684313982440046,
    "diversity": 0.5181818181818182,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 110,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 57
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 294,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960077777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43644756599884005
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 22:05 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.190

Log loss0.573

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.030123231401186674,
  "shareRatio": 0.6081245665026257,
  "totalAfter": 2191,
  "shareBefore": 0.04968383017163505,
  "totalBefore": 2214,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 66,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 110
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.97% → 3.01% (-39%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). diversity contributed -0.28 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash85d5e071d2818d7c442e51bb29640d3f473045866e8c19c85f91516f3a64dfb6

Previous hashbcd2c7fbfc892cc0f60d9756f4c21957946e7f40077c3c8d4f43c4a53ceac912