GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4136 · token · 6H

Will $NETHER still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 18m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 3 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.054969486336574155
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "7XLd1vTsWdY74YgkCCSk1nqo6bMCCX3SS5QeVvgKtgSC",
    "name": "Nether Entity",
    "symbol": "NETHER",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 18,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 303,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2989.4139304777805,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 3
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 819,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.054969486336574155
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 02:30 UTC.

Integrity

Hashe24b722144773201aaccb514ac25b20d5ef128f06a799dd9218a6ed6a715d240
Previous hash5d1202db10a90de9da53d30a6a0e6b2e067d2a9186bb5972341fa597a585f142