Ledger / Prediction #4134 · token · 6H
Will $KIRKOWEEN still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 3% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 27m ago. website. No hot term. Creator launched 5 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0,
"website": 0.3,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
},
"features": {
"mint": "Bu7pCmDPDiVdr3qxJDeqyAws51ETNx5mt2raujVnpump",
"name": "KIRKOWEEN",
"symbol": "KIRKOWEEN",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 27,
"hasTwitter": false,
"hasWebsite": true,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 0,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3075.7852847677354,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 5
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 819,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 02:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
8a7f3f3c9917aeedb085ce660e3a423b8f255bc18bbad0cf2593b003f2ee3504Previous hash
ff7bc9bde3f770d1ad159d7884a1aa2c4d5912b6e4ede8d1e14692c7c2f80ab0