Ledger / Prediction #4121 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
52 of 2306 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (38 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.
Made2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.351270870922099,
"momentum": 0.19745727393778145,
"diversity": -0.023076923076923127
},
"rawProbability": 0.556174646875925
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.027724665391969407,
"share60": 0.022756827048114433,
"total15": 522,
"total60": 2306,
"momentum": 1.2183010106528271,
"diversity": 0.7307692307692307,
"launches15": 14,
"launches60": 52,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 38
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 326,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990605555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990605555555555
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.556174646875925
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 21:39 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.309
Log loss0.812
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.013138686131386862,
"shareRatio": 0.588266629609042,
"totalAfter": 2055,
"shareBefore": 0.022530329289428077,
"totalBefore": 2308,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 27,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 52
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.25% → 1.31% (-42%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d1728453e1210f9b4604b37faa724d4e9e9b6941b0e3832cb2df2a5b55ff3130Previous hash
30da00e328abf6efd0787f3b40b72ffd6078375835c5c6bad3a449ea5210e854