GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4121 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2306 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (38 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

Made2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 0.19745727393778145,
      "diversity": -0.023076923076923127
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.556174646875925
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.027724665391969407,
    "share60": 0.022756827048114433,
    "total15": 522,
    "total60": 2306,
    "momentum": 1.2183010106528271,
    "diversity": 0.7307692307692307,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 326,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990605555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990605555555555
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.556174646875925
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 21:39 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.309
Log loss0.812
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.013138686131386862,
  "shareRatio": 0.588266629609042,
  "totalAfter": 2055,
  "shareBefore": 0.022530329289428077,
  "totalBefore": 2308,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.25% → 1.31% (-42%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd1728453e1210f9b4604b37faa724d4e9e9b6941b0e3832cb2df2a5b55ff3130
Previous hash30da00e328abf6efd0787f3b40b72ffd6078375835c5c6bad3a449ea5210e854