Ledger / Prediction #4117 · token · 1H

Will $shag still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 23m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-14 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "Eykgy3GRQksGrW4SciTFD7sryFBgkW4swtboJzfqpump",
    "name": "SHAG",
    "symbol": "shag",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 23,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 9,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2949.929238700402,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 684,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 21:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T19:45:27.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2912.6615170581103,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 2949.703922881748,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2949.929238700402,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5899.858477400804
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $shag would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,913, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $shag (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2799eb832333c89d3352e5beb4efda861bd54105cc79f6a5ed42764097b2e6f7

Previous hash6052c24177933b595b3e9216a33d6f9e2398be372a5f6fcf7e9a37b0450eb7b8