Ledger / Prediction #4115 · narrative · 24H
Will "jean" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 22% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
51 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "jean" (4 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.
Made2026-10-14 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34835815804353376,
"momentum": -1.4812418626478685,
"diversity": -0.8058823529411765
},
"rawProbability": 0.21936288568127352
},
"features": {
"term": "jean",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.005494505494505495,
"share60": 0.02416705771938057,
"total15": 636,
"total60": 2130,
"momentum": 0.22735516910274195,
"diversity": 0.0784313725490196,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 51,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 303,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9934808333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997283680555555
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.21936288568127352
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 20:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
e57d4a5d98c063c4ca297cc5c0d42b2e30b489338c5e019a0d95cafc7b356611Previous hash
4d7679be0cd5c80f6a0b2b63f7a6b6729f58d666add29cbc73ebe12dfdef78b1