Will "bro" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
8 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "bro" (8 distinct creators, rank #125). Last 15m momentum 2.95×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.07050054438686033,
"momentum": 1.0824138335724478,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.7600428373109296
},
"features": {
"term": "bro",
"rank60": 125,
"share15": 0.011773940345368918,
"share60": 0.003988737681839512,
"total15": 636,
"total60": 2130,
"momentum": 2.9517961030566076,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 8,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 303,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9934808333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9934808333333334
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7600428373109296
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0009033423667570009,
"shareRatio": 0.2846899482140486,
"totalAfter": 2214,
"shareBefore": 0.003733084461035931,
"totalBefore": 2143,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 2,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 8
}Predicted 76% that "bro" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.37% → 0.09% (-76%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "bro" (1H). momentum contributed +1.08 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "bro". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
95c716bc647c68268b3a690cc683c8fe9f8bf87e6cb3e7bbf16dd1be3a30fed3b42eff94262c155930032d29af7f3d99c405bce817aef7e505cd59b1f78c1371