Ledger / Prediction #4107 · narrative · 1H

Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (10 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

Made2026-10-14 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": -2.472934227916966,
      "diversity": -0.6966101694915254
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.002354788069073783,
    "share60": 0.027921163772876584,
    "total15": 636,
    "total60": 2130,
    "momentum": 0.08433703151590305,
    "diversity": 0.1694915254237288,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 303,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9934808333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9934808333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005420054200542005,
  "shareRatio": 0.20334996301003472,
  "totalAfter": 2214,
  "shareBefore": 0.027531497900139992,
  "totalBefore": 2143,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 59
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "live" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.75% → 0.54% (-80%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "live" (1H). momentum contributed -2.47 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb42eff94262c155930032d29af7f3d99c405bce817aef7e505cd59b1f78c1371

Previous hash49f3f3bd0af290215e2745a2b7bcdd871685d3cf993fe758dfdd96b6972a23da