Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

77 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (55 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.71×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41015512641293755,
      "momentum": -0.3393405789263125,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43240570973497483
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.025902668759811617,
    "share60": 0.036367902393242606,
    "total15": 636,
    "total60": 2130,
    "momentum": 0.7122398338988202,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 77,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 55
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 303,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9934808333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9934808333333334
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43240570973497483
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04968383017163505,
  "shareRatio": 1.380103400567975,
  "totalAfter": 2214,
  "shareBefore": 0.03593093793747083,
  "totalBefore": 2143,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 110,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 77
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity