Ledger / Prediction #410 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
133 of 2215 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (104 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.98×.
Made2026-10-10 00:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.49213668236814795,
"momentum": -0.022890988619246943,
"diversity": 0.03834586466165408
},
"rawProbability": 0.5517123142103855
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.05888030888030888,
"share60": 0.06024368231046932,
"total15": 517,
"total60": 2215,
"momentum": 0.9773690223128425,
"diversity": 0.7819548872180451,
"launches15": 30,
"launches60": 133,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 104
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 366,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965991666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965991666666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5517123142103855
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 01:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.201
Log loss0.595
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.10235245563351217,
"shareRatio": 1.7078404469660449,
"totalAfter": 2423,
"shareBefore": 0.05982905982905983,
"totalBefore": 2223,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 248,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 133
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.98% → 10.24% (+71%). CORRECT.
— volume pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.49 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
9e9287fc4625e30ad858ed6e6e3be042e69487898afb8bca9cad730fe22966c9Previous hash
48725741b4a76be18dd76446a106fff3d5fd9907002f18594f4a24c4c3c7be74