Will "women" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

67 of 2091 launches in the last hour referenced "women" (32 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3892882060435298,
      "momentum": -2.319882053077439,
      "diversity": -0.32686567164179103
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1323634149395605
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "women",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.003171247357293869,
    "share60": 0.032265774378585084,
    "total15": 472,
    "total60": 2091,
    "momentum": 0.0982851773549448,
    "diversity": 0.47761194029850745,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 67,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 286,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965594444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994265740740741
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1323634149395605
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000326477309826967,
  "shareRatio": 0.06789085666095378,
  "totalAfter": 12252,
  "shareBefore": 0.005369880580267693,
  "totalBefore": 12477,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity