Ledger / Prediction #4092 · narrative · 1H
Will "squeeze" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
14 of 2091 launches in the last hour referenced "squeeze" (14 distinct creators, rank #61). Last 15m momentum 1.07×.
Made2026-10-14 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.1544429125771737,
"momentum": 0.06539475576171969,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5547391389545768
},
"features": {
"term": "squeeze",
"rank60": 61,
"share15": 0.007399577167019027,
"share60": 0.006931166347992352,
"total15": 472,
"total60": 2091,
"momentum": 1.0675803747175037,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 14,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 14
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 286,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965594444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965594444444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5547391389545768
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.308
Log loss0.809
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0025996533795493936,
"shareRatio": 0.4086707187766013,
"totalAfter": 2308,
"shareBefore": 0.006653992395437262,
"totalBefore": 2104,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 6,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 14
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "squeeze" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.67% → 0.26% (-61%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "squeeze" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
cff9e7144c72b7c88f843a600f726445dd4ec79a6490805d13e831ab42e26160Previous hash
01528d0d1640884aad755b502fdbd465bd5c43222b5418596e4fef36618c6278