GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4080 · narrative · 6H

Will "working" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2185 launches in the last hour referenced "working" (5 distinct creators, rank #348). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.

Made2026-10-14 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.19410155681170244,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5114657620323817
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "working",
    "rank60": 348,
    "share15": 0.003054989816700611,
    "share60": 0.002516010978956999,
    "total15": 490,
    "total60": 2185,
    "momentum": 1.2142195889650065,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 286,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998956944444445
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5114657620323817
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 01:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.239
Log loss0.670
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012102630304986284,
  "shareRatio": 1.062928600242033,
  "totalAfter": 12394,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011359948068808828,
  "totalBefore": 12324,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 14
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "working" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.12% (+7%). PARTIAL.

— "working" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash66cf8e6fc5154811f30dba214ac3e89f2cee26dc9d85c781f576be3543b83a0a
Previous hashd0c6ea5dc29ec25cab140ebfc057e233e6ebe7a4c07498bde52e4c4752744ff2