Will "limitless" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
72 of 2185 launches in the last hour referenced "limitless" (71 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.40008423098729323,
"momentum": -2.3847369128105016,
"diversity": 0.2833333333333334
},
"rawProbability": 0.18378314899209958
},
"features": {
"term": "limitless",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.003054989816700611,
"share60": 0.033165599268069536,
"total15": 490,
"total60": 2185,
"momentum": 0.09211321019734531,
"diversity": 0.9861111111111112,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 72,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 71
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 286,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998956944444445
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.18378314899209958
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00024205260609972567,
"shareRatio": 0.04609581411004758,
"totalAfter": 12394,
"shareBefore": 0.006085686465433301,
"totalBefore": 12324,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 3,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 75
}Predicted 18% that "limitless" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.61% → 0.02% (-96%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "limitless" (6H). momentum contributed -2.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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