Will "stock" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

74 of 2185 launches in the last hour referenced "stock" (73 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40419407711551036,
      "momentum": -3.5105617650034957,
      "diversity": 0.2837837837837838
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09314638682353271
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stock",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.0010183299389002036,
    "share60": 0.03408051235132662,
    "total15": 490,
    "total60": 2185,
    "momentum": 0.02988012411323282,
    "diversity": 0.9864864864864865,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 74,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 73
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 286,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998956944444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09314638682353271
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012102630304986284,
  "shareRatio": 0.17030347738684506,
  "totalAfter": 12394,
  "shareBefore": 0.007302823758519961,
  "totalBefore": 12324,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 90
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity