Ledger / Prediction #4073 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

83 of 2185 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (49 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.45×.

Made2026-10-14 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42141040430437465,
      "momentum": -0.7913959274185757,
      "diversity": -0.19156626506024094
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2970152346262026
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.017311608961303463,
    "share60": 0.03819762122598353,
    "total15": 490,
    "total60": 2185,
    "momentum": 0.4532117028671781,
    "diversity": 0.5903614457831325,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 83,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 49
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 286,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993741666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2970152346262026
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.088

Log loss0.352

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03593093793747083,
  "shareRatio": 0.9471914380194834,
  "totalAfter": 2143,
  "shareBefore": 0.037951531778692274,
  "totalBefore": 2187,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 77,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 83
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 30% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.80% → 3.59% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfb213c8c796a04cda40e5dbd6cfc2b06eeb77cb10f65a36e035615d2ea2abf9d

Previous hash0ca0059c444448221271410e628ffa5a652af0ab865acd463340b0a9e27a7570