Ledger / Prediction #407 · token · 1H

Will $Mootion still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 30m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2kVaEheJmQ87h3c6xqzNWitkPfxELEHf9HbaVayRpump",
    "name": "Mootion",
    "symbol": "Mootion",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 30,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 11717.021911047112,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 782,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 00:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T00:18:16.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3333.524438001013,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 22940.476764656818,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 11717.021911047112,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 23434.043822094223
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $Mootion would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,334, still trading). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $Mootion (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash309ce3c0e41061e188a3f5e68cd9dc35c0709c0dd33274a5a8c6d55573dcd1e1

Previous hash89000e63dd64755e5810e70df76670649cb183fc075bad0809492d688a52298a