Ledger / Prediction #4054 · token · 6H

Will $1mil still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-14 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4bqMqcnK8TA5Hu3MEa6g8fA4CGyWHxEzbNB6LJyvpump",
    "name": "Warmhole",
    "symbol": "1mil",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 9723.797299474454,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 646,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T17:47:18.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 258.8571110124967,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 20890.050653343536,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 9723.797299474454,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 19447.59459894891
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $1mil would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $259, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $1mil (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaf68d2ee1efd7037e0acc707dc23479b79d52f2d7d8323ea17aa4f3b6829a3de

Previous hash0509ff2bb0743a3918d88c35d77209b6321a70191739d6b4ea0447bceffd1770