Ledger / Prediction #4050 · narrative · 24H
Will "slopbrain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 13% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
38 of 2110 launches in the last hour referenced "slopbrain" (4 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.
Made2026-10-14 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 18:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3042222370938428,
"momentum": -2.8091857929563138,
"diversity": -0.7736842105263158
},
"rawProbability": 0.12572215382943766
},
"features": {
"term": "slopbrain",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.001098901098901099,
"share60": 0.0182378019895784,
"total15": 454,
"total60": 2110,
"momentum": 0.060254031682603106,
"diversity": 0.10526315789473684,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 38,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 309,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968844444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998701851851852
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.12572215382943766
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 18:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
bc8a746e01e7e6b8f9bd72fff74e8a4347cf61d2751efcf7a97c7b0c18f9ae7aPrevious hash
ba9d031648eced50e50fa7e3025ff8daa826b911dd38e533e11a75b96c1a7e16