Ledger / Prediction #4048 · narrative · 6H
Will "artificial" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 44% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 2110 launches in the last hour referenced "artificial" (6 distinct creators, rank #172). Last 15m momentum 0.93×.
Made2026-10-14 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": -0.07481828353673019,
"diversity": 0.1285714285714285
},
"rawProbability": 0.4434817746405493
},
"features": {
"term": "artificial",
"rank60": 172,
"share15": 0.0032967032967032967,
"share60": 0.0035528185693983892,
"total15": 454,
"total60": 2110,
"momentum": 0.9279120879120879,
"diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 309,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968844444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994807407407408
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4434817746405493
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 00:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.310
Log loss0.813
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.003961472735746466,
"shareRatio": 1.6461754385964913,
"totalAfter": 12874,
"shareBefore": 0.0023874488403819918,
"totalBefore": 11728,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 51,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 28
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 44% that "artificial" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.40% (+66%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "artificial" (6H). momentum contributed -0.07 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e9b26b24ec58abd5de6de9edf82467783a7ab28e479f20938e6ad648fbaf2025Previous hash
946b76e1015ab0bbb1c572d33558b002584f755e474cf300b25425739c3f3bc7