Ledger / Prediction #4045 · narrative · 6H
Will "game" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 31% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
41 of 2110 launches in the last hour referenced "game" (19 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.50×.
Made2026-10-14 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3156201231405311,
"momentum": -0.6869964015630083,
"diversity": -0.3439024390243902
},
"rawProbability": 0.3098768494070344
},
"features": {
"term": "game",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.00989010989010989,
"share60": 0.019658929417337753,
"total15": 454,
"total60": 2110,
"momentum": 0.5030848669402886,
"diversity": 0.4634146341463415,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 41,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 309,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968844444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994807407407408
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3098768494070344
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 00:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.096
Log loss0.371
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006447102687587385,
"shareRatio": 0.910990291262136,
"totalAfter": 12874,
"shareBefore": 0.007077080491132333,
"totalBefore": 11728,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 83,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 83
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 31% that "game" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.64% (-9%). PARTIAL.
— "game" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
34aad1cf5433e06a55cd1cc6905963887cde420abc5232b1769aee2ff4016775Previous hash
b00993041db38213025fc550b87ae7fa4312fa3eecf465391d4ecaefbfadf75d