Will "weeniecoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

19 of 2110 launches in the last hour referenced "weeniecoin" (14 distinct creators, rank #36). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.200250160009851,
      "momentum": -2.1289420172322764,
      "diversity": -0.015789473684210575
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09582655815271453
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "weeniecoin",
    "rank60": 36,
    "share15": 0.001098901098901099,
    "share60": 0.009237328280435813,
    "total15": 454,
    "total60": 2110,
    "momentum": 0.11896308819385741,
    "diversity": 0.7368421052631579,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 19,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 309,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968844444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968844444444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09582655815271453
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004572473708276177,
  "shareRatio": 0.07453241456897763,
  "totalAfter": 2187,
  "shareBefore": 0.008966493629070316,
  "totalBefore": 2119,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity