Ledger / Prediction #4041 · narrative · 1H

Will "game" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 2110 launches in the last hour referenced "game" (19 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.50×.

Made2026-10-14 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -0.6869964015630083,
      "diversity": -0.3439024390243902
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2659480687945254
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "game",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.00989010989010989,
    "share60": 0.019658929417337753,
    "total15": 454,
    "total60": 2110,
    "momentum": 0.5030848669402886,
    "diversity": 0.4634146341463415,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 309,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968844444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968844444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2659480687945254
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 19:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.071

Log loss0.309

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00594421582075903,
  "shareRatio": 0.3151912953459175,
  "totalAfter": 2187,
  "shareBefore": 0.019348749410099102,
  "totalBefore": 2119,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "game" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.93% → 0.59% (-69%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "game" (1H). momentum contributed -0.69 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf12d31c1748b59592e0e18fa7548d32e1d4cc26e40adf9e6a94515a901dde5a9

Previous hashafc6460ebb7cff5e5ab7253a32612aed09fa0bc34c01e0d088e4dc8f892777ed