Ledger / Prediction #404 · narrative · 6H

Will "blue" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2448 launches in the last hour referenced "blue" (6 distinct creators, rank #290). Last 15m momentum 1.06×.

Made2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.06045449881709628,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4928659623289528
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "blue",
    "rank60": 290,
    "share15": 0.002819548872180451,
    "share60": 0.002654144548795427,
    "total15": 531,
    "total60": 2448,
    "momentum": 1.0623192596876807,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 441,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999397222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999899537037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4928659623289528
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.243

Log loss0.679

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0011078578776608373,
  "shareRatio": 0.8202099979022291,
  "totalAfter": 12637,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013663868826859261,
  "totalBefore": 15369,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 21
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "blue" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.11% (-19%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "blue" (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash14ff3313acd75ef196937a8df47b05384d3841af454623d39c0565ee1151fba9

Previous hash9939558e23d85932c64108a6d938bbf223d8e0a1f2baf8238fc09a8b5942d81e