Will "tumor" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 2351 launches in the last hour referenced "tumor" (23 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -3.0319723585691345,
      "diversity": -0.2866666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08375877482301533
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tumor",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0009328358208955224,
    "share60": 0.019345238095238096,
    "total15": 535,
    "total60": 2351,
    "momentum": 0.04822043628013777,
    "diversity": 0.5111111111111111,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 349,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999291666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999881944444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.08375877482301533
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.00936578050887516,
  "totalAfter": 12915,
  "shareBefore": 0.004090157514576625,
  "totalBefore": 11491,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity