Will "timmy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 2351 launches in the last hour referenced "timmy" (24 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": -3.0537123452055406,
      "diversity": -0.2739130434782609
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0834536381183673
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "timmy",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0009328358208955224,
    "share60": 0.019770408163265307,
    "total15": 535,
    "total60": 2351,
    "momentum": 0.047183437650457384,
    "diversity": 0.5217391304347826,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 349,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999291666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999881944444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.0834536381183673
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.008162836223331563,
  "totalAfter": 12915,
  "shareBefore": 0.004699329910364633,
  "totalBefore": 11491,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity