Will "roflmao" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 72% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
52 of 2448 launches in the last hour referenced "roflmao" (35 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 4.60×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.351270870922099,
"momentum": 1.5267915676105235,
"diversity": -0.09230769230769224
},
"rawProbability": 0.7211208738420654
},
"features": {
"term": "roflmao",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.09868421052631579,
"share60": 0.02143732135565537,
"total15": 531,
"total60": 2448,
"momentum": 4.603383458646617,
"diversity": 0.6730769230769231,
"launches15": 52,
"launches60": 52,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 35
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 441,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999397222222223,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999899537037037
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7211208738420654
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.006488881854870618,
"shareRatio": 1.911129699545588,
"totalAfter": 12637,
"shareBefore": 0.0033834341856984838,
"totalBefore": 15369,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 82,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 52
}Predicted 72% that "roflmao" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.34% → 0.65% (+92%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "roflmao" (6H). momentum contributed +1.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
2d5ca4adad393c6a5f98864157752da990b23ff358b64e3a712dcbc2f2501d34961eb48f8904d921acb1cc1655d383ff4dfdf6c499d8a2a2f59a69360c24efed