Ledger / Prediction #4015 · narrative · 6H

Will "team" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 2359 launches in the last hour referenced "team" (24 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.93×.

Made2026-10-14 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": -0.07304649398569003,
      "diversity": -0.24545454545454548
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42687764612529566
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "team",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.017527675276752766,
    "share60": 0.01885593220338983,
    "total15": 541,
    "total60": 2359,
    "momentum": 0.9295576101828432,
    "diversity": 0.5454545454545454,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943822222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990637037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42687764612529566
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.182

Log loss0.557

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005030104412773417,
  "shareRatio": 0.6584574079034352,
  "totalAfter": 13121,
  "shareBefore": 0.007651666970304245,
  "totalBefore": 10978,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 66,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "team" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.77% → 0.50% (-34%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "team" (6H). diversity contributed -0.25 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcacb7ccba33948d08bb67a8ddffd5dc55362bed3a04597a1c177618c0f91e072

Previous hashe6ff958281e432c682b2266c19a6f6d40ce010e22a3f746633e8d226798db080