Ledger / Prediction #4002 · narrative · 24H
Will "mba" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 24% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
85 of 2480 launches in the last hour referenced "mba" (58 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.
Made2026-10-14 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4249820016084324,
"momentum": -2.0419581335318577,
"diversity": -0.08117647058823527
},
"rawProbability": 0.24065784083979777
},
"features": {
"term": "mba",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.004472271914132379,
"share60": 0.034461910519951636,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2480,
"momentum": 0.12977434642061322,
"diversity": 0.6823529411764706,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 85,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 58
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 297,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974158333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998923263888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.24065784083979777
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 16:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
1c79f2b70b9f78adcbf766076f962cc10767d0d08a96f9b2ee99f0990886b8c8Previous hash
1c88e0d461da458cfc2e87571690e60e7154fbb493f8ec7f8ceab88643fd5921