Will "usepaid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

25 of 2480 launches in the last hour referenced "usepaid" (17 distinct creators, rank #32). Last 15m momentum 0.78×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24141568686511503,
      "momentum": -0.24433354485140446,
      "diversity": -0.08399999999999994
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4107556356162121
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "usepaid",
    "rank60": 32,
    "share15": 0.008050089445438283,
    "share60": 0.010278113663845224,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2480,
    "momentum": 0.7832263495738189,
    "diversity": 0.68,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 25,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974158333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995693055555556
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4107556356162121
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005273213603362629,
  "shareRatio": 0.695182751848023,
  "totalAfter": 13085,
  "shareBefore": 0.007593014426727411,
  "totalBefore": 10536,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 80
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity