Ledger / Prediction #40 · token · 6H

Will $Alois still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 19m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2FvqqfCUzEJSUBoeCyE5xk25RFwG4SJ3jd1x5e7epump",
    "name": "Agent Alois",
    "symbol": "Alois",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 19,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3141.387069322402,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 399,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 13:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T08:01:27.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3087.949248519004,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3157.9673386049826,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3141.387069322402,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6282.774138644804
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $Alois would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $Alois (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5e43c56590d95fcf4c9613723a57a7ba2d32b05fbc3ff3dd91f3a9e810696085

Previous hash023250d7c65f653b291586239d71bd84784bfc6b949236f38726b1c89a427187