Ledger / Prediction #3994 · narrative · 1H
Will "bot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
98 of 2480 launches in the last hour referenced "bot" (67 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.
Made2026-10-14 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4463294349354708,
"momentum": -1.0848860170990766,
"diversity": -0.0795918367346939
},
"rawProbability": 0.2653882229665283
},
"features": {
"term": "bot",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.013416815742397137,
"share60": 0.03970173317210802,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2480,
"momentum": 0.3379403031156071,
"diversity": 0.6836734693877551,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 98,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 67
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 297,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974158333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974158333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.2653882229665283
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.070
Log loss0.308
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.005104210974053594,
"shareRatio": 0.1340796470872613,
"totalAfter": 2351,
"shareBefore": 0.039452495974235106,
"totalBefore": 2484,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 12,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 98
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 27% that "bot" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.95% → 0.51% (-87%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "bot" (1H). momentum contributed -1.08 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
96ae195fa117b2ff07db49586268cc8b437d54c62cd17b6b867e49eb8f8f96bbPrevious hash
cf68bce380e7b9c08ee4e0ee95c38c53d19a23cc55de131348f0f21f987f0122