Will "shift" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

181 of 2480 launches in the last hour referenced "shift" (3 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5383588678247588,
      "momentum": -2.2069107463919293,
      "diversity": -0.8801104972375691
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05475050191126345
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "shift",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.008050089445438283,
    "share60": 0.07315598548972188,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2480,
    "momentum": 0.11004006564260266,
    "diversity": 0.016574585635359115,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 181,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974158333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974158333333333
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05475050191126345
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002552105487026797,
  "shareRatio": 0.0378377935196117,
  "totalAfter": 2351,
  "shareBefore": 0.07286634460547504,
  "totalBefore": 2484,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 181
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity