Ledger / Prediction #3982 · narrative · 6H
Will "night" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
92 of 2313 launches in the last hour referenced "night" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.29×.
Made2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.436852599692241,
"momentum": 1.1910852760077792,
"diversity": -0.8608695652173912
},
"rawProbability": 0.558961350302434
},
"features": {
"term": "night",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.13154069767441862,
"share60": 0.03997407087294728,
"total15": 687,
"total60": 2313,
"momentum": 3.2906505342551857,
"diversity": 0.03260869565217391,
"launches15": 90,
"launches60": 92,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 256,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.999925,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999875
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.558961350302434
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 22:05 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.312
Log loss0.819
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.007637051039697543,
"shareRatio": 0.7583408377739309,
"totalAfter": 13225,
"shareBefore": 0.010070493454179255,
"totalBefore": 9930,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 101,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 100
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "night" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.01% → 0.76% (-24%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "night" (6H). momentum contributed +1.19 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
4e3a91f930dea97f9ac5256f1ade077a8383b15fc557e58ac2942fd4e4fc741dPrevious hash
52a6b36441ca8fb9b3ea10d560916771c9fa2af1932407b40313d361bd5a1682