Will "promises" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

111 of 2313 launches in the last hour referenced "promises" (15 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.00×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.46501384333173507,
      "momentum": 1.0990771230846519,
      "diversity": -0.7378378378378379
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5691483256290791
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "promises",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.14462209302325582,
    "share60": 0.04818496110630942,
    "total15": 687,
    "total60": 2313,
    "momentum": 3.0013948274064033,
    "diversity": 0.13513513513513514,
    "launches15": 99,
    "launches60": 111,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 256,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.999925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999875
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5691483256290791
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013081285444234404,
  "shareRatio": 0.8116875897705501,
  "totalAfter": 13225,
  "shareBefore": 0.016112789526686808,
  "totalBefore": 9930,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 173,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 160
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity