Ledger / Prediction #3980 · narrative · 1H

Will "doginhood" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 79% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2313 launches in the last hour referenced "doginhood" (9 distinct creators, rank #125). Last 15m momentum 3.36×.

Made2026-10-14 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 1.2129440698202782,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7860220830352629
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doginhood",
    "rank60": 125,
    "share15": 0.013808139534883721,
    "share60": 0.004105445116681072,
    "total15": 687,
    "total60": 2313,
    "momentum": 3.363372093023256,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 256,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.999925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999925
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7860220830352629
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.618

Log loss1.542

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012652889076339097,
  "shareRatio": 0.35956776426732934,
  "totalAfter": 2371,
  "shareBefore": 0.0038893690579083835,
  "totalBefore": 2314,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 79% that "doginhood" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.13% (-67%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "doginhood" (1H). momentum contributed +1.21 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 79% and wrong on "doginhood". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4dee15071931d61e56e65f373f958b7e0441cda66834babdb32edb1217a3ed14

Previous hash5baa7339d6009f139fb45a60d198a2308f70d895b38b84cc7d27335811b6fd09