Ledger / Prediction #3978 · narrative · 1H
Will "night" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
92 of 2313 launches in the last hour referenced "night" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.29×.
Made2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.436852599692241,
"momentum": 1.1910852760077792,
"diversity": -0.8608695652173912
},
"rawProbability": 0.6146896304956504
},
"features": {
"term": "night",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.13154069767441862,
"share60": 0.03997407087294728,
"total15": 687,
"total60": 2313,
"momentum": 3.2906505342551857,
"diversity": 0.03260869565217391,
"launches15": 90,
"launches60": 92,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 256,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.999925,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999925
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6146896304956504
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.378
Log loss0.954
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03753690425980599,
"shareRatio": 0.9443165762727314,
"totalAfter": 2371,
"shareBefore": 0.03975799481417459,
"totalBefore": 2314,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 89,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 92
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 61% that "night" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.98% → 3.75% (-6%). PARTIAL.
— "night" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0d5603206edd636eabb7c01b318e8db091fe00dc3bfac065c72dcecd7d526520Previous hash
6f4831b3bb8444d9522f96615122369778665ad25bfe4a3c3df47a8eb36e627f