Ledger / Prediction #3970 · narrative · 24H
Will "callinu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
78 of 1821 launches in the last hour referenced "callinu" (15 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.97×.
Made2026-10-14 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.41209063713832367,
"momentum": 1.0893251418836922,
"diversity": -0.6692307692307692
},
"rawProbability": 0.5289905735706021
},
"features": {
"term": "callinu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.12805872756933115,
"share60": 0.043084522502744235,
"total15": 612,
"total60": 1821,
"momentum": 2.972267536704731,
"diversity": 0.19230769230769232,
"launches15": 78,
"launches60": 78,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 203,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9942627777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997609490740741
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5289905735706021
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 15:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
2ee66fdba76bc632e288ebc1a6b55d31da01b5252b0e55164f01d1d629061539Previous hash
9d2adac7547ad7a5d2ee7b8b493a2108d750e8eeb288f6324af55c76c34e2212