GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3962 · narrative · 1H

Will "callinu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

78 of 1821 launches in the last hour referenced "callinu" (15 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.97×.

Made2026-10-14 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41209063713832367,
      "momentum": 1.0893251418836922,
      "diversity": -0.6692307692307692
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6299925864671914
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "callinu",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.12805872756933115,
    "share60": 0.043084522502744235,
    "total15": 612,
    "total60": 1821,
    "momentum": 2.972267536704731,
    "diversity": 0.19230769230769232,
    "launches15": 78,
    "launches60": 78,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 203,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9942627777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9942627777777778
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6299925864671914
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 16:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.397
Log loss0.994
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.004025764895330112,
  "shareRatio": 0.09866331748452498,
  "totalAfter": 2484,
  "shareBefore": 0.0425764192139738,
  "totalBefore": 1832,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 78
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "callinu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.26% → 0.40% (-91%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "callinu" (1H). momentum contributed +1.09 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha10ee9a9733b8b998e5ada62fe1a6ab1b5c627cf988b7b44ce95f2419c4b546d
Previous hash2deb08e080a783e1986e49ab2249fc1829d640a3594a2bef0da3b33f9767fc69