Ledger / Prediction #3962 · narrative · 1H
Will "callinu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
78 of 1821 launches in the last hour referenced "callinu" (15 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.97×.
Made2026-10-14 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.41209063713832367,
"momentum": 1.0893251418836922,
"diversity": -0.6692307692307692
},
"rawProbability": 0.6299925864671914
},
"features": {
"term": "callinu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.12805872756933115,
"share60": 0.043084522502744235,
"total15": 612,
"total60": 1821,
"momentum": 2.972267536704731,
"diversity": 0.19230769230769232,
"launches15": 78,
"launches60": 78,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 203,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9942627777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9942627777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6299925864671914
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 16:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.397
Log loss0.994
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004025764895330112,
"shareRatio": 0.09866331748452498,
"totalAfter": 2484,
"shareBefore": 0.0425764192139738,
"totalBefore": 1832,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 10,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 78
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 63% that "callinu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.26% → 0.40% (-91%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "callinu" (1H). momentum contributed +1.09 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a10ee9a9733b8b998e5ada62fe1a6ab1b5c627cf988b7b44ce95f2419c4b546dPrevious hash
2deb08e080a783e1986e49ab2249fc1829d640a3594a2bef0da3b33f9767fc69