Ledger / Prediction #3948 · narrative · 1H

Will "inspired" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "inspired" (4 distinct creators, rank #77). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

Made2026-10-14 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 14:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": -1.617854845402682,
      "diversity": -0.3666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1000784231699098
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inspired",
    "rank60": 77,
    "share15": 0.00117096018735363,
    "share60": 0.005904288377874456,
    "total15": 426,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.19832367804757794,
    "diversity": 0.4444444444444444,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974277777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974277777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1000784231699098
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.010

Log loss0.105

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00432152117545376,
  "shareRatio": 0.7715357508241446,
  "totalAfter": 2314,
  "shareBefore": 0.005572755417956657,
  "totalBefore": 1615,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "inspired" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.56% → 0.43% (-22%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inspired" (1H). momentum contributed -1.62 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2a980221e9ab169ecf1b2011a65e1b76c7589040989b4053528e02da3693c3db

Previous hash7982bc1fcc6f17ab0369d05d2ba34b6dbe8110b1eb3497b4bf1f1d95d6e63cf6