Ledger / Prediction #3945 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (43 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.

Made2026-10-14 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 14:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": -0.15670249334344163,
      "diversity": -0.025423728813559386
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4720513402086123
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03161592505854801,
    "share60": 0.036979490366687386,
    "total15": 426,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.8549583767933403,
    "diversity": 0.7288135593220338,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 43
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974277777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974277777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4720513402086123
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.223

Log loss0.639

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013396715643906655,
  "shareRatio": 0.36955914115106087,
  "totalAfter": 2314,
  "shareBefore": 0.03653250773993808,
  "totalBefore": 1615,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 31,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 59
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.65% → 1.34% (-63%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.16 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash82225a202b32bd00ab13e4146e4cc3b74f8753457b57af24cf7f2b797f03d11b

Previous hash46cd010997d7beae176eb1de0a1e603b4dcadf57e70312693c1572f951ccbc8e