Ledger / Prediction #3933 · narrative · 6H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
66 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (19 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.89×.
Made2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 14:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3870325244388488,
"momentum": 1.0620946857356133,
"diversity": -0.5545454545454545
},
"rawProbability": 0.5808362520686337
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.11538461538461539,
"share60": 0.039892021595680865,
"total15": 402,
"total60": 1666,
"momentum": 2.8924233661075767,
"diversity": 0.2878787878787879,
"launches15": 46,
"launches60": 66,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 224,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986857407407408
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5808362520686337
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 20:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.337
Log loss0.869
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.022893772893772892,
"shareRatio": 0.7109622450205628,
"totalAfter": 13104,
"shareBefore": 0.032196744683378874,
"totalBefore": 8417,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 300,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 271
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.22% → 2.29% (-29%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "uxento" (6H). momentum contributed +1.06 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
504cd10c2d94e76d50e18b95325ce9592f9d5ad51f938a9d583bc65fdb77edf2Previous hash
6ab84837b2e6268d82a4ba0af27245b733504f31c0f5cab62983271188bdb460