Will "caught" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "caught" (7 distinct creators, rank #95). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.4133690232521052,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18349157474385053
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "caught",
    "rank60": 95,
    "share15": 0.0012406947890818859,
    "share60": 0.005098980203959208,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1666,
    "momentum": 0.24332214275288278,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 224,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921144444444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18349157474385053
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.053977728570970114,
  "totalAfter": 1832,
  "shareBefore": 0.004759071980963712,
  "totalBefore": 1681,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity