GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3929 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (19 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.89×.

Made2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 14:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 1.0620946857356133,
      "diversity": -0.5545454545454545
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6444157212663312
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.11538461538461539,
    "share60": 0.039892021595680865,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1666,
    "momentum": 2.8924233661075767,
    "diversity": 0.2878787878787879,
    "launches15": 46,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 224,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921144444444444
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6444157212663312
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.415
Log loss1.034
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03711790393013101,
  "shareRatio": 0.8915895733460243,
  "totalAfter": 1832,
  "shareBefore": 0.04164187983343248,
  "totalBefore": 1681,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 68,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 64% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.16% → 3.71% (-11%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +1.06 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9207173d0e904a7df618d80727e21565389ae6aab907f26ccd7efca6a5687990
Previous hash60a914dec7c2780485e419e9a6d671db37d7d133eff716d6b9aed55f16413cc8