Ledger / Prediction #3929 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
66 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (19 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.89×.
Made2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 14:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3870325244388488,
"momentum": 1.0620946857356133,
"diversity": -0.5545454545454545
},
"rawProbability": 0.6444157212663312
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.11538461538461539,
"share60": 0.039892021595680865,
"total15": 402,
"total60": 1666,
"momentum": 2.8924233661075767,
"diversity": 0.2878787878787879,
"launches15": 46,
"launches60": 66,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 224,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921144444444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6444157212663312
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.415
Log loss1.034
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03711790393013101,
"shareRatio": 0.8915895733460243,
"totalAfter": 1832,
"shareBefore": 0.04164187983343248,
"totalBefore": 1681,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 68,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 70
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 64% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.16% → 3.71% (-11%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +1.06 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
9207173d0e904a7df618d80727e21565389ae6aab907f26ccd7efca6a5687990Previous hash
60a914dec7c2780485e419e9a6d671db37d7d133eff716d6b9aed55f16413cc8