Ledger / Prediction #3928 · token · 6H

Will $MUSKI still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 19m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-14 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CcmgUCKH4x9Pb6LSXAhsE3aYxTx1BpKf7fxKT8nbpump",
    "name": "Elon Muski",
    "symbol": "MUSKI",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 19,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2969.4027674730473,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 566,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 20:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.076

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T13:41:17.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2964.945031728241,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 11103.702083558379,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2969.4027674730473,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5938.805534946095
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $MUSKI would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,965, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $MUSKI (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash60a914dec7c2780485e419e9a6d671db37d7d133eff716d6b9aed55f16413cc8

Previous hashabccc49211cc677de5d2588611ef6ee7c1dd75df71d8724a864d7124da58f685